Australian
Agri-Food 2000 Research Forum Melbourne August 17 Agribusiness Development Opportunities Dr Howard Dengate, Director Agribusiness and
Resource Economics
Sleeping land This is the term used by visiting Indonesian officials, who are as at home in Geneva or Washington as they are in Jakarta, when they look at the open spaces of the Northern Territory. Where we see land fully exploited for pastoral use, to its sustainable limits, they see what people and labour could accomplish. Of course, they look through Javanese eyes accustomed to some of the most fertile volcanic soil on the planet, to wet tropics availability of water, to cheap and patient labour and, above all, to the ready availability of markets in some of the densest settlement in human history. In vain I've argued that northern Australia has some of the poorest, most infertile skeletal soils in the world, as it has. I've pointed out that our rainfall is wildly erratic and inadequate - who can further exploit, in an agricultural production sense, 2.5 metres of rain in three months and then nothing for nine months? Or a desert with temperatures from -10° C to above 45° C and only 250 mm of rain a year? I've said to them that that our labour and transport costs limit the opportunity, that we have fewer people in the whole of the Northern Territory than they have in even the smallest town in Java. I've reminded them that our major markets are further away in all instances than the length of the Indonesian archipelago. In particular I've argued, with a sense of moral superiority, that the land only looks as though it's sleeping because OUR use is sustainable, that WE have EFFECTIVE controls on clearing of country, on damage to riparian zones, on extraction of water, on damage to soil resources. WE plan to conserve important biodiversity and WE ACHIEVE it by a system of regulation and enforcement that actually works. The pastoral use of this land is at its limits of long-term environmental and economic sustainability. This land is not sleeping but fully awake. In fact, I have to confess to disquiet about my sense of moral superiority in development. While we have aimed in the past to ensure that our use is sustainable, better resource information and better bioregional planning can be applied. While we don't have the extent of degradation that attends agriculture in areas of Indonesia, we are working in a more fragile system where even a marginal loss can be serious. As the Murray Darling Basin has shown, as soil acidification and soil salinity demonstrate, the costs of 200 years of agriculture in Australia will be paid for the next 100 years. Australia has fed 80-100 million people each year on a subsidy extracted from our future. Anyway, all my protests have been in vain; the Indonesians still refer to our "sleeping land". And I have come to think that they are right. I have started to see this northern land through different eyes. Not as having the obvious potential that has developers' eyes lighting up with dollar signs, because otherwise it would already be developed in the southern or even Javanese sense. It is not capable of being developed like the dense emerald rice paddies of Java, which were the early dreams for this sleeping land. Instead, what northern Australia does have is a unique agribusiness development potential. The sleeping lands of northern Australia can be the site of agribusiness development that uses the best and most informed bioregional planning, that is, planning within a catchment and ecological framework. Planning that uses the best scientific knowledge of agronomy and best use of water and the lowest-impact pest control strategies. Planning that uses the best models of community involvement. What northern Australia still retains is the space to develop with a knowledge of many of the mistakes of the past. We are not, as they are in the south, expending huge sums to correct major errors like soil salinity. Nor are we fiddling at the edges of production systems to gain one or two percent less costs or more production. We are in the business of creating unique agricultural systems, ones that have not existed before. We have a chance to wake our sleeping land in whatever way we choose, and the choices are wide and rewarding. Let's be clear that I am not talking about some back door mass clearing over the next 50 years, done incrementally through ignorance, greed and expedience as has happened down south. The picture that I have is for green islands of intensively developed agribusinesses, surrounded by pasture-improved savanna woodlands, surrounded again by an even greater area of natural savanna woodlands, some of which is grazed, some of which is in various forms of conservation reserve. This is the reverse of the struggle down south to preserve remnant vegetation. The entire NT horticulture industry, for instance, produces some $60m of produce from less than 60 km2, out of the 1,346,200 km2 in the NT, and could possibly double that production value without any increase in land area. I could extend the metaphor of sleeping land to the nearly 50% of the Northern Territory owned by aborigines, that could perhaps be called dreaming land. In some cases there is a desire to use the land productively in the agribusiness sense; in some cases this is not the use desired. In most, I suspect, the owners of dreaming land are still working through their own imperatives for use of their land. On some of this dreaming land there are significant land and water resources that could be used for agribusiness. This is particularly the case for aquaculture, where the NT has very large potential developments on hold because of native title and land claim issues. But there are pastoral, cropping and horticultural opportunities too, with significant potential. The view of agribusiness development that I have outlined today, of small areas intensively developed, is compatible with aboriginal aspirations in many areas, providing employment and an opportunity to be involved in the commercial world, but without the development impacting on the wider landholding. With the change of attitude signalled by the Chief Minister in his Foundations for the Future statement, and building on successes in agribusiness development that have already occurred with aboriginal involvement, those with patience will find ways to access the resources in the dreaming land. Now let me demonstrate how northern agribusiness potential is being awakened using the approach I have outlined, by updating you on three major projects in my Office of Resource Development: The Ord River Irrigation Area Stage 2 development plans to use the waters of Lake Argyle to expand the current irrigated area here to broadacre and intensive areas here and here. The existing area of 13,000 ha will be expanded by a further 50,000 ha of broadacre cropping and 15,000 ha of intensive horticulture. Sole development rights were awarded in April 1998 to a consortium of Wesfarmers Ltd and the Marubeni Corporation. They were given until the end of 1999, since extended one year, to complete their own feasibility study and to proceed to development if the results are satisfactory to governments and the consortium. The consortium intends to develop the entire broadacre area for sugar production. A world-class sugar mill and port developments will take the cost of the total development to over $500m. Co-proponents, the Western Australian Water Corporation, will build the new M2 channel for a cost of about $75m. In planning, biodiversity and conservation needs have been recognised to an extent unprecedented, I believe, in Australian if not world planning for such irrigation areas. The area under irrigation is 33% less than that in the conservation buffer surrounding the fields. In addition, there are plans on both sides of the border to create national parks with great scenic beauty as well as important biodiversity. The highest level of environmental clearance has been applied to the planning of this project, which is an Environmental Review and Management Plan, or ERMP, equivalent to the NT's EIS. The design of the irrigation matches that of the storage, which is for very long-term sustainability. Tailwater will be returned to farms, extensive levees and drains will help manage off-site flows. Salinisation is a minimal problem because of the nature of the soils and the annual Wet Season. Amelioration of the effects of the long-term rise in the watertable is already being addressed by a system of lift-pumps. Water allocation will be on the basis that environmental flows are maintained and the farmers will have 98% certainty of receiving their annual allocation. The Ord Stage 2 Environmental Review and Management Plan will be exposed for three months public review in December. It has taken immense effort to reach this point. It should be obvious to all that this represents a new and necessary approach to exploiting the opportunities that lie in northern Australia. Negotiations with aborigines interact to a considerable extent with the environmental planning. The community wants to be reassured that the environmental, social and economic impact of the development will add to their quality of life. A separate social impact study will provide important evidence for finalisation of the ERMP. There will also be negotiations on what benefits beyond the power of the developer may be provided by governments. Subject to a satisfactory feasibility study, environmental clearance, the resolution of aboriginal issues and agreement with governments, the consortium intends to call tenders in late 2000 for construction of the M2 channel, with construction to commence in the 2001 dry season. The Katherine Daly Basin occupies 5,000 km2 in the Top End of the Northern Territory. The central area of the Daly Basin has been identified as the area most suitable for agricultural development. The Northern Territory Government is encouraging existing leaseholders in the Basin to increase the area's agricultural productivity. The vision is for progressive intensification of agriculture in the area, using world's best environmental management and production practices. Within this area, present development interest is centred on Douglas South, Jindare and Claravale stations and the Stray Creek area, a total of 2,685 km2. Perhaps 20% of this area has red sandy and clay loams suitable for cropping including horticulture, although their fragmentation makes it unlikely that all will be intensively developed. It is estimated that this area's productivity could be lifted from the current $2m to more than $18m per annum based on cropping and improved pasture. Horticultural production will boost this further. Ancillary industries associated with the need for fertilizer, agricultural equipment, transport and services will achieve a more sustainable scale. The biophysical framework for development will be provided in the first instance by a bioregional conservation plan presently being produced. A wildlife survey of the area is collating existing biological data and undertaking analyses. The overall objectives are to provide long-term security for conservation values and to guide sustainable development. The plan will propose a set of reserves to include representation of fauna and flora species native to the bioregion. It will also identify areas of significance outside these reserves that will need special management. The plan will contain guidelines to maximise the conservation value of individual properties. The next level of planning is also underway, which is to ensure that there is adequate resource definition to allow infrastructure and development planning to proceed. Then we'll plan roads and other infrastructure to obtain optimal development. The preferred strategy is for existing leaseholders to be involved and to move towards more intensive development, with Government providing strategic assistance in the form of roads, advising on integrated planning and attracting investors if required. Balanced outcomes for all community sectors are sought. Positive spinoffs for tourism and recreational fishing can be expected from the comprehensive planning process. The real test of our approach to agribusiness development will be whether we can develop a cotton industry with full community support. The potential is large, perhaps as big as our existing pastoral industry from only 30,000ha, but there are also risks to be assessed. The NT Government has commenced a thorough, long-term research project to evaluate all aspects, social, economic and environmental, of the potential for a cotton industry in the Northern Territory. Early work has shown promising results, suggesting that cotton can be grown in the Territory as an intensive small lot crop requiring minimal insecticide usage. However, much more work needs to be done into economics and marketing issues, soil and water quality management, pesticide usage and bio-diversity issues before any commitment to develop a cotton industry can be made. Only double gene Bt insect-resistant cotton is intended to be grown commercially in the Northern Territory. As this will not be available until 2003/2004 no cotton can be planted commercially before then. If a commercial cotton industry is eventually approved for the Territory, it will be subject to strict legislative controls. This much is certain: There will be no commercial cotton industry in the Territory until the environmental integrity of such an industry can be proven. So, what I have emphasised today is quality planning to balance the resource base with biodiversity with production with community aspirations. I have deliberately chosen today not to deal you death by a thousand overheads and factoids, but cannot resist, in concluding, making a "state of the agriculture" declaration about our northern sleeping land. LAND
WATER
AGRONOMY
MARKETS
Let me end with another Indonesian view of our northern agribusiness development opportunities. Some years ago I took the Javanese head of agriculture of one of the provinces out to the coastal plains. As we drove along and chatted about this and that agricultural he observed the bush beside the track and asked, "These trees then, they provide the firewood for the city?" I looked out of the corner of my eye. Surely he was putting me on. Then I answered gravely "Well, no actually. We use electricity and gas for cooking." There was a long pause as we drove on. Quite a long pause. Then he asked again, "Well, what have all these trees been planted for?" Where I saw nature, he saw purpose; surely it is time to carefully add some purpose to our nature, and awaken the sleeping land to Australia's purpose. |