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Land and Environment : Agribusiness Assoc. of Australia

Agribusiness Review - Vol. 10 - 2002

Land reform and the development of commercial agriculture in Vietnam: policy and issues

Sally P. Marsh and T. Gordon MacAulay
Department of Agricultural Economics, The University of Sydney, NSW, 2006
Paper 1, 9 April 2002
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Over the last decade, following the doi moi reforms, the Vietnamese government has formally recognised the household as the basic unit of production and allocated land use rights to households.  Under the 1993 Land Law these rights can be transferred, exchanged, leased, inherited, and mortgaged.  A land market is emerging in Vietnam but is still constrained for various reasons.  Additionally, lack of flexibility of land use is an issue.  As Vietnam moves into the world market and reduces trade barriers in line with ASEAN Free Trade Area (AFTA) requirements, farmers are becoming increasingly vulnerable to falling incomes because of lower prices for their produce.  An overview of the land reform policies and issues related to these are outlined in the paper.  Challenges facing Vietnamese agriculture are discussed within the context of an effort by Vietnam to more its household farms from subsistence farming to a more commercial base.

The US Cattle Cycle and its Influence on the Australian Beef Industry

Garry Griffith, Principal Research Scientist, NSW Agriculture Beef Industry Centre, Armidale, a Project Leader, Beef Quality CRC and Adjunct Professor, University of New England and Andrew Alford, PhD scholar at the University of New England, funded by the Beef Quality CRC. 

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Although there is some disagreement about the fine detail the signposts for the Australian beef industry appear to be pointing mainly in the “positive” direction in the short term.
How long will this situation last and what can cattle producers, feedlot operators and meat processors do to protect themselves against the inevitable turnaround towards the “negative” direction?
In this paper, one of the critical factors influencing the longer-term future of the beef market, the United States (US) cattle cycle, is described and its impacts on Australia are evaluated.

Beef Consumption, Supply and Trade in Korea

Jung-Sup Choi, Korea Rural Economic Institute, Seoul 130-710, Korea, Zhang-Yue Zhou and Rodney J. Cox, The University of Sydney – Orange, Orange NSW 2800
Paper 3, 1 August 2002
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Until recently the Korean beef market was heavily protected. However, since the beginning of 2001 there have been significant changes to beef import arrangements and their distribution channels, and the protection in the beef market has fallen. In January 2001 beef import quotas were lifted and replaced by an import tariff. The dual retail system – where domestic and imported beef are sold separately – was abolished in September 2001, and now domestic and imported beef can be sold in the same outlet. In addition, any retailer is now permitted to sell imported beef. Thanks to the WTO-led reforms, Australia can benefit from the changes in the Korean beef market. In this study, we examine beef consumption trends in Korea; Korea's beef cattle production and its beef supply potential; beef import prospects; likely responses in the Korean beef industry as a result of the beef import tariffication; and beef trading arrangements in Korea. We also draw implications on how the Australian beef industry may capitalise on the opening up of the Korean beef market.

The Demand for Beef in Indonesia: Implications for Australian Agribusiness

Maradoli Hutasuhut a , Hui-Shung (Christie) Chang b , Garry Griffith b,c , Chris O'Donnell b  and Howard Doran b
The authors are with a   the Indonesian Directorate-General of Livestock Services, Jakarta;  b the University of New England, Armidale; and  c NSW Agriculture, Armidale.
Paper 4, 19 August 2002
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Meat consumption, expenditure and socio-demographic data from the 1990, 1993 and 1996 SUSENAS Household Food Expenditure and Consumption Surveys were employed to estimate the demand for meats in Indonesia.  The focus was on the Provinces of DKI Jakarta and West Java where about one-fourth of the Indonesian population reside. Statistical and econometric procedures were used to aggregate the 16 meat types recorded in the SUSENAS into four meat groups. They were then used to estimate the Linear Approximation of the Almost Ideal Demand System (LA/AIDS) model, taking into account zero observations and the restriction that budget shares must lie between zero and unity.

Introductory Remarks - The Future of Farm Management

The following 3 papers, numbers 5, 6 & 7 are a series.

These three papers comprised a plenary session at the 46 th Conference of AARES in February 2002.  Its title was ‘Agenda for the 21 st Century: Farm Management.' At first blush the papers seem to be unrelated.  But this is their real value as a set.

Farm management in Australia is an exotic domain.  Low protection, significant export dependence and climatic variability create instability in the farm management environment that is uncommon across management environments as a whole.  Control over performance is weak. This instability illuminates the remorseless deterioration in farmers' terms of trade.

Both economic theory and systems theory imply that the deliberate achievement of survival in the long run is problematic in such environments.  But farmers are phlegmatic about the long run, and distrustful of forecasters.

Two consequences flow from the magnitude of the challenge they face routinely: the pivotal importance of productivity improvement to realised farm performance; and the complex, fluid, sometimes chaotic, recipe for success as a farm manager.

This is a context where the farming game is under permanent redefinition, where required skills (and their likely providers) shift and where myths and legends, heroes and champions, inhabit the culture.

The canvas, the playing field, on which farms will be more or less well managed is largely defined by productivity change and its known consequences (such as farm numbers, size, political influence, and so on).  The way farmers manage, and the policy context that defines their dependence on their own ability to do so, flows from human conceptual modelling of the task.

These papers are intrinsically closely related.  They also provide a thorough coverage of the farm management agenda, perhaps the most constant aspect of Australian farming.

Associate Professor Vic Wright
The University of New England

Farm Management In The 21 st Century

J D Mullen, NSW Agriculture,  Head Office, 161 Kite Street, Orange, NSW  2800
Paper 5, 10 September 2002
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A key element of an agenda for farm management in the 21 st Century should be productivity on farms. The gains from productivity since 1953 have been enough to offset declines in the real price of farm outputs at least in the broadacre sector. Productivity gains will remain important to the sector in this century. For public institutions, the focus of research and extension activities will continue to switch to the management of natural resources. Farmers and policy makers will need to know the on-farm impacts of technologies and policies that will effect resource stocks over many years. A challenge to farm management professionals will be how to present this information, derived from sophisticated modelling,  to farmers and policy makers. My guess is that Malcolm's ‘few figurings' of a ‘few futures' is the way to go.

Issues for Farm Management in the 21 st Century:  A view from the West

Ross Kingwell, Senior adviser, Western Australian Department of Agriculture and Visiting senior lecturer, University of Western Australia
Paper 6 10 September 2002
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Against a backdrop of descriptive snapshots of the years 1975, 2000 and 2025, this paper explores challenges for broadacre farm managers. Issues of particular relevance to Western Australian farm managers are emphasized.  Key market, environmental, technical, structural and social challenges and their implications for farm managers are discussed. 
Established and emerging trends, along with commentaries of a range of futurists, are used to develop forecasts for farm management.  The paper concludes by examining the question of change in farm management: How might the farm manager in 2025 be different from one in 2000 and what are the implications for farm management training, farm management advisory services and farm management researchers?

Delving and Divining for Australian Farm Management Agenda: 1970-2010

Glenn Ronan, Principal Strategy Consultant, Primary Industries and Resources South Australia
Paper 7, 10 September 2002
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Challenges and opportunities on and off the farm generate a changing agenda for farm business management and farm families in Australia's rural sector. National, state and regional interest in the contribution and connections of farming to agribusiness, the food sector and the economy, the environmental status of rural land and water and the welfare of farm families leads to public policies interfacing and interacting with private farm business interests.
Conceptualising farm businesses as mixes of ‘management', ‘resources' and  ‘family' aids appreciation of new structures and strategies, ties in with ‘triple bottom line' thinking and reflects the shift from farm policy to an array of policies focussing on social, environment and economic aspects of contemporary life in rural and regional Australia. Farming's links to the domestic and international economy, the environment and regional economies and rural communities are illustrated as the basis of agenda review and search.
Selected issues on the agenda from 1970 are plotted and delved into with the aid of a new web based bibliography of Australian farm management, including the literature of the Australian Farm Management Society. Divining agenda towards 2010 is attempted. Some legends, leaders and champions of farm management in Australia are nominated.

The Emerging Dairy Economy in China: Production, Consumption and Trade Prospects

Zhang-Yue Zhou, Asian Agribusiness Research Centre, The University of Sydney, Orange NSW 2800 , Wei-Ming Tian, and Jun-Lin Zhou College of Economics and Management, China Agricultural University, Beijing China 100094
Paper 8, 11 September 2002
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Currently per capita consumption of dairy products in China is low. The question as to whether China's strong economic growth and the resulting higher consumer income would represent a great market potential for dairy products has drawn much interest from the dairy industry both within and outside China. This paper overviews China's dairy market with up-to-date information and highlights important factors affecting its development. The study shows that the growth of demand for dairy products in China is promising. However, despite the fact that China's accession to the WTO will result in reductions in trade barriers, a substantial increase in exports of dairy products to the Chinese market is unlikely in the near future. This is due to a number of reasons including taste differences between the Chinese and the consumers of major dairy exporting countries. To succeed in the Chinese market, dairy exporters need to increase their understanding of the Chinese dairy markets and to consider modifying their products to suit the tastes of the Chinese.

The Demand for Wine in Australia Using a Systems Approach: Industry Implications

Hui-Shung (Christie) Chang, Senior Lecturer in the School of Economics at the University of New England, Garry Griffith, Principal Research Scientist in the NSW Agriculture Beef Industry Centre at Armidale and Nicholas Bettington, Adjunct Professor in the Graduate School of Agricultural and Resource Economics at the University of New England
Paper 9, 11 September 2002
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The objective of this study is to explain the factors determining the demand for wine in Australia, based on a systems approach where wine demand is modelled as part of the broader demand for alcoholic drinks (beer, wine and spirits). Time series data on retail price indexes and apparent per capita consumption of alcoholic beverages for Australia for the period 1975/76 to 1998/99 are used for econometric estimation of an Almost Ideal Demand System. The results show that the demand for beer and wine is price inelastic and that both beer and wine are luxury goods. The study also found that current beer and wine consumption strongly follows past consumption patterns. Drink driving campaigns have not had a significant effect on alcoholic consumption, but there seems to have been a structural change in consumer preferences that has had a significant impact on the volume of wine consumption. Finally, there seems to have been an overall upward trend in wine consumption and a downward trend for beer consumption. The study re-confirms the importance of developing a model that considers the impacts of both economic and non-economic variables on wine consumption. Implications for wine industry marketing strategies are suggested.

Household Animal Raising Behaviour in China's Developed Regions: 
The Case of Zhejiang Province

Xi-An Liu and Zhang-Yue Zhou - Asian Agribusiness Research Centre, The University of Sydney, Orange NSW 2800
and Hua-Yong Teng  and Qing-Fang Guo - College of Economics and Management, China Agricultural University, Beijing China 100094

Paper 10, 26 November 2002
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Due to the dominant role of household animal raising in China's animal production, an improved understanding of household animal raising practices is essential to study China's feedgrain markets. It is also noted that the level of local economic development affects animal raising practices and the development of feedgrain markets. This paper reports the findings from a rural household survey we conducted in a developed coastal province of China. It was specially designed to examine issues related to household animal raising practices such as animal raising scale, sources of feed, feed processing and feeding efficiency in a developed area. Discussed also are the implications that the findings have for China's regional feedgrain markets.

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